“Thus, in 2022, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation predicts export growth up to $585.3 billion ($493.8 billion in 2021) with a decrease in imports to $285.7 billion ($304 billion). At the same time, a surplus of $190.8 billion is expected in 2023 due to a decrease in exports and an increase in imports ($505.4 billion and $314.5 billion, respectively). In the next two years, the macro forecast assumes a slight decrease in exports with a more dynamic recovery in imports. Thus, according to the estimates voiced in the draft document, the trade balance surplus in 2024 will be $169.2 billion and in 2025 – $153.6 billion.

“”In the first half of the year, we had an extremely high trade balance. Gradual reduction of the trade balance is expected both due to the recovery of imports and due to certain decrease in exports as a result of the need to redirect export flows to new destinations and certain losses associated with this redirection,”” said a federal official familiar with the discussion of the macro forecast to journalists.

He added that consumer import recovery is happening faster today than in the investment and intermediate import segment. “”Logistics for intermediate and investment segments are objectively more difficult than for consumer imports. Therefore, such a leading growth of consumer demand is understandable and explainable,”” he said.

Source: TASS”